Let me start out by saying… 

ONE THING THAT I KNOW IS THAT I DON’T KNOW

Sorry, but I don’t and really nobody else does either. No offense to the brilliant economists who diligently study the market and make predictions. Trust me I appreciate, respect and listen to their findings. I’ve just learned that they are predictions and not facts. Because sometimes life throws us all a curveball like a global pandemic, the Fed, elections, natural disasters…. things that are completely beyond our control.

Regardless of all of this “not knowing,”  I am a student of the market and I do my best to be aware. Here’s what the industry leaders and word on the street are telling me about 2024.

BEST TIME TO SELL

I recently attended the Inman Connect conference in NYC, where Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale shared that “sellers on the fence waiting for the perfect time to sell their home should start their preparations.”  According to Realtor.com data, “mid-April will be the best time for sellers to close a deal. Getting your home on the market before other sellers do decreases your competition by as much as 9.3%. This can result in more buyers viewing the property, less time on the market and a higher sales price.”

On the streets this is playing out. I put a darling home on the market last week. In 5 days, we had 24 showings, 20 parties through the open house and interested buyers. That is the most traffic we have had through an open house in a year. The house was priced and prepared well which is essential to a successful experience.

BEST TIME TO BUY

Buyers are getting tired of waiting. With recent drops in interest rates, more buyers are stepping up to the plate. Portland lender, Clint Elliot of Do Good Mortgage, affirmed that mortgage applications are up significantly locally and rates are looking more promising as they are down today landing at 6.75%. According to an article in Forbes, “Economists are also optimistic that the Federal Reserve is done with its rate-hiking campaign.”

Although affordability still remains a challenge especially for first-time home buyers, there is no strong indication that prices will recede much further. Portland prices have dropped from the all-time highs of 2022 by almost 8% on average according to the RMLS, but low inventory and higher interest rates makes it feel like prices haven’t moved much.

It makes sense that as interest rates decline, more buyers will enter the market consuming the already low inventory causing an increase in average sales price. If you can afford to buy now, it’s probably a smart move.

PREDICTIONS ASIDE…

One principle in real estate has never changed: The best time to buy or sell is when you are ready. Life events have always been the primary cause for making a move and in markets when the choice to buy or sell isn’t so easy, necessity tends to rule. Trusting that the timing is perfect and that despite the challenges and circumstances we will all land just where we need to be is the best prediction that I can think of.