“Nature is slow, but sure; she works no faster than need be; she is the tortoise that wins the race by her perseverance.”
~Henry David Thoreau
We all know the old adage of the hare and the tortoise. The hare is so cocky about his speed that he challenges the tortoise to a race. In his confidence, he decides to take a snooze under a tree as the tortoise passes him and to the hare’s shock wins the race. In my humble opinion, we are living out loud this very story in real estate today.
After 2 1/2 years of a rabbit-paced market, real estate hit a major speed bump this year as the Fed dramatically raised interest rates to curb inflation. The buying and selling frenzy came to a screeching slow down. A state of fear has set in slowing things more. Some have adopted the belief that the media feeds us indicating that something terrible is happening. In all of this chaos, could the tortoise be taking the lead?
You have heard of Yin and Yang right?
In yoga, the tortoise represents the principal of Yin which is the passive, feminine receptive state and the hare represents Yang which is the masculine, active state. Together they create balance and harmony. They co-exist. We might be in more of a yang state at times (the past 2 1/2 years) but will eventually go back to a yin state to balance out. This is a perpetual dance that keeps us and the world in balance.
Will 2023 be The Year of the Tortoise- A More “Yin” Year?
According to a recent National Association of Realtors article, Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun “expects home sales to decline by 7%, while the national median home price will increase by 1%, with some markets experiencing price gains and others price declines in 2023.” By end of 2023, he “expects the interest rate to settle at 5.7 percent as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate hikes to control inflation.” Several other opinions that I have read by leading real estate economists seem to generally concur with slight differences in either direction. If these predictions play out, it sounds like 2023 may indeed be quite Tortoise-like.
To be clear…. This “Year of the Tortoise” idea is a Pam thing and not a Chinese zodiac accuracy! Interestingly, 2023 is the Year of the Water Rabbit. According to The Chinese Zodiac.org, “Following a hectic and energetic year, the 12 Chinese zodiac signs can take advantage of a more restful time and take stock of their life goals. The Rabbit symbolizes patience and luck.”
That might feel like ALOT to absorb so I will leave you with my take-aways.
SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE
REAL ESTATE IS A LONG-GAME ENDEAVOR
USE ALL EXPERIENCES TO BENEFIT PERSONAL GROWTH
CREATE YOUR OWN REALITY BY HOW YOU INTERPRET YOUR EXPERIENCE